Current build
Sigma
A distribution-first equity-research terminal.
Overview
Most research tools give you a consensus mean and a single price target, throwing away the shape of your own conviction and how it disagrees with what the market already prices. Sigma takes the live options chain, derives the market's full risk-neutral distribution, overlays my own Bull/Base/Bear view on the same axis, and shades the gap as edge. Then it grades me: a calibration view tracks my probabilistic calls over time with a Brier score and a reliability diagram.
What it involved
- Verified quant engine in pure, dependency-free TypeScript: Black-Scholes, the Breeden-Litzenberger risk-neutral density pipeline, expected move, EV, and Kelly, all unit-tested.
- Every view ends in an expected value, a strategy comparison, and a half-Kelly position size.
- Calibration scorecard that grades forecasts over time the way a serious poker player measures process over outcome.
- Honest math: the implied density is labeled risk-neutral (Q), not real-world (P), with a transparent Q-to-P drift adjustment instead of mislabeling it.
Stack
- Next.js 16
- React 19
- TypeScript
- Tailwind v4
- d3
- Options math